{
  "as_of": "2026-09-07",
  "units": "USD billions",
  "classification": "Illustrative acquisition-cost reconstruction; sensitivity scenarios are not confidence intervals",
  "valuation": "Estimated acquisition value of surviving active computing hardware; no accounting depreciation; four-year central service-life convention",
  "input_sha256": "619b9be29e07a1ce0a390c3571761b75b417943dc67f748fdf451b4e4e9adff1",
  "dataset_source": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai_chip_sales_timelines_by_chip.csv",
  "recorded_cohorts": {
    "2022": 10.836427423,
    "2023": 32.127722342,
    "2024": 107.34754079199998,
    "2025": 191.69050521499992,
    "2026": 152.33168600099998
  },
  "missing_cost_units": {
    "Trainium1": 440000.0,
    "Siyuan 590": 135000.0
  },
  "supplier": {
    "September 7 nowcast": {
      "low": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 3.6,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 103,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 5,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 9,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 8,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.2,
        "subtotal": 459.7657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 551.7189220187998
      },
      "central": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 3.6,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 126.4,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 6.2,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 12.8,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 14,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.35,
        "subtotal": 494.1657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 667.1237872711499
      },
      "high": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 3.6,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 152,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 8,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 18,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 22,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.5,
        "subtotal": 534.7657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 802.1486525234999
      }
    },
    "December 31 forecast": {
      "low": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 0,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 198,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 8,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 18,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 15,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.2,
        "subtotal": 570.1657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 684.1989220187999
      },
      "central": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 0,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 227,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 10,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 24,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 25,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.35,
        "subtotal": 617.1657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 833.1737872711499
      },
      "high": {
        "2023_2025_estimated_accelerator_value": 331.1657683489999,
        "remaining_2022_estimated_value": 0,
        "2026_active_Nvidia_value": 257,
        "2026_active_AMD_value": 15,
        "2026_active_Google_value": 34,
        "2026_active_other_supplier_allowance": 38,
        "residual_server_network_multiplier": 1.5,
        "subtotal": 675.1657683489999,
        "active_hardware_estimate": 1012.7486525234999
      }
    }
  },
  "owner": {
    "low": {
      "inputs": {
        "spend": [
          230,
          400,
          750
        ],
        "hardware": 0.6,
        "ai": [
          0.5,
          0.65,
          0.8
        ],
        "active": [
          0.95,
          0.9,
          0.65
        ],
        "older": 20,
        "other": 60,
        "sep_spend": 470,
        "sep_older": 25,
        "sep_other": 50
      },
      "end_year_components": [
        65.55,
        140.4,
        234.0
      ],
      "end_year_total": 519.95,
      "september_total": 427.59000000000003
    },
    "central": {
      "inputs": {
        "spend": [
          235,
          412.5,
          784
        ],
        "hardware": 0.7,
        "ai": [
          0.65,
          0.8,
          0.9
        ],
        "active": [
          0.98,
          0.96,
          0.8
        ],
        "older": 40,
        "other": 100,
        "sep_spend": 500,
        "sep_older": 45,
        "sep_other": 85
      },
      "end_year_components": [
        104.78649999999999,
        221.76,
        395.13599999999997
      ],
      "end_year_total": 861.6824999999999,
      "september_total": 708.5464999999999
    },
    "high": {
      "inputs": {
        "spend": [
          240,
          430,
          830
        ],
        "hardware": 0.75,
        "ai": [
          0.75,
          0.9,
          0.95
        ],
        "active": [
          1,
          1,
          0.9
        ],
        "older": 60,
        "other": 160,
        "sep_spend": 550,
        "sep_older": 70,
        "sep_other": 140
      },
      "end_year_components": [
        135.0,
        290.25,
        532.2375000000001
      ],
      "end_year_total": 1177.4875000000002,
      "september_total": 987.9375
    }
  },
  "sensitivities": {
    "supplier_central": 833.1737872711499,
    "supplier_historical_10_percent_inactive": 788.4664085440348,
    "supplier_custom_silicon_multiplier_2_instead_of_1_35": 898.4099512179998,
    "supplier_unpriced_historical_5B_hardware_allowance": 838.1737872711499,
    "supplier_unpriced_historical_15B_hardware_allowance": 848.1737872711499,
    "supplier_five_year_life_retaining_all_2022": 847.8029642921999,
    "supplier_uniform_multiplier_to_reach_1T": 1.6203102169375536,
    "owner_amazon_H1_unpaid_and_finance_lease_adjustment_if_persistent": 11.464992000000002,
    "owner_2026_AI_share_80_instead_of_90": 817.7784999999999,
    "owner_hardware_80_and_2026_active_90": 1021.2280000000001
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Owner cash-to-acquisition reconciliation incomplete",
    "Global owner residual is assumed",
    "Supplier overhead differs by architecture",
    "Supplier cost fields are estimates, not owner invoices",
    "Incomplete quarters use actual source cutoffs, not CSV quarter-end labels",
    "Owner and supplier approaches overlap in underlying market evidence",
    "Missing historical chip costs are excluded from central supplier value; allowance sensitivities shown separately"
  ]
}