# AI 2027 Tracker

> Tracking all 53 predictions from the AI 2027 scenario (ai-2027.com) against real-world evidence. Updated weekly.

## About

Independent, evidence-based assessment of whether the AI 2027 scenario's predictions are materializing. Each prediction has its own page with the original claim, evidence for and against, status assessment, and primary source links.

- URL: https://ai2027-tracker.com
- Source scenario: https://ai-2027.com (AI Futures Project)
- Methodology: https://ai2027-tracker.com/methodology/
- Status definitions: confirmed | ahead | on-track | behind | emerging | not-yet-testable

## Current Scorecard

- 16 confirmed
- 3 ahead
- 8 on-track
- 4 behind
- 13 emerging
- 9 not-yet-testable

## Pages

- [Homepage / Dashboard](https://ai2027-tracker.com/)
- [All Predictions](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/)
- [Methodology](https://ai2027-tracker.com/methodology/)
- [About](https://ai2027-tracker.com/about/)
- [What's New](https://ai2027-tracker.com/changelog/)
- [Guides](https://ai2027-tracker.com/guides/)
- [Comparisons](https://ai2027-tracker.com/compare/)

## Prediction Pages (53 total)

### Model Capability
- [10²⁸ FLOP training run completed](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/training-compute/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 50%, updated 2026-03-13
- [High-bandwidth non-text reasoning (neuralese) deployed](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/neuralese-breakthrough/) — emerging, confidence 35%, updated 2026-03-13
- [IDA achieves superhuman performance at coding](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/ida-at-scale/) — emerging, confidence 40%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Frontier model uses daily weight updates / online learning](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/agent-2-online-learning/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 20%, updated 2026-03-13
- [OSWorld benchmark reaches 65% by mid-2025](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/osworld-benchmark/) — confirmed, confidence 90%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Frontier model trained at 10²⁷ FLOP (Agent-0, completes May 2025)](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/agent-0-flop/) — emerging, confidence 45%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Models shift to continuous/iterative training](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/continuous-training/) — confirmed, confidence 90%, updated 2026-03-13

### Agent Autonomy
- [AI model capable of autonomous self-replication](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/autonomous-replication/) — emerging, confidence 55%, updated 2026-06-06
- [METR time horizon doubles every 4 months](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/metr-doubling/) — ahead, confidence 80%, updated 2026-05-25
- [Computer-using agents marketed as 'personal assistants'](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/personal-assistant-agents/) — confirmed, confidence 85%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Best AI agents cost hundreds of dollars per month](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/agent-pricing/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-04-13
- [Unreliable but useful AI agents emerge](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/unreliable-agents/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Agents struggle with long-horizon tasks](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/long-horizon-struggle/) — confirmed, confidence 85%, updated 2026-06-06

### Coding
- [SWE-bench-Verified score reaches 85%](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/swebench-target/) — on-track, confidence 90%, updated 2026-05-05
- [200,000–250,000 AI coding agents run in parallel](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/parallel-agent-workforce/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 40%, updated 2026-03-13
- [RE-Bench score reaches 1.3](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/rebench-benchmark/) — behind, confidence 70%, updated 2026-06-06
- [Superhuman coder emerges](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/superhuman-coder/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 60%, updated 2026-06-15
- [Coding fully automated but research taste still requires humans](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/coding-automated-taste-lags/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 55%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Coding agents provide significant real-world value](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/coding-agents/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-08

### Governance
- [Large-scale anti-AI protest (10,000+ people)](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/anti-ai-protest/) — emerging, confidence 55%, updated 2026-06-15
- [Department of Defense scales up AI lab contracting](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/dod-ai-contracting/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-08
- [Nationalization of leading AI lab debated](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/nationalization-debate/) — emerging, confidence 65%, updated 2026-06-29
- [Public unaware of best AI capabilities](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/capability-secrecy/) — on-track, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-29
- [Continued skepticism from academics and journalists](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/skepticism/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-03-13

### Security
- [Leading AI lab progresses toward RAND SL3 security](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/security-level-progression/) — emerging, confidence 60%, updated 2026-06-29
- [AI reaches near-best-human hacking capability](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/cyberwarfare-capabilities/) — ahead, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-29
- [AI provides substantial bioweapon design help](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/bioweapon-capabilities/) — on-track, confidence 80%, updated 2026-06-29
- [AI scores 85% on Cybench](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/cybench-benchmark/) — confirmed, confidence 75%, updated 2026-06-06
- [AI model weights stolen by nation-state](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/model-theft/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 40%, updated 2026-03-13
- [China's centralized AI facility airgapped](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/cdz-airgap/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 30%, updated 2026-03-13

### Geopolitics
- [China has ~12% of global AI-relevant compute](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/china-compute-share/) — emerging, confidence 55%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Chinese domestic AI chips 3 years behind US-Taiwan](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/china-chip-gap/) — on-track, confidence 75%, updated 2026-06-01
- [Leading Chinese AI lab ~6 months behind US frontier](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/china-model-gap/) — behind, confidence 70%, updated 2026-06-22
- [China nationalizes/centralizes AI research](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/china-centralization/) — emerging, confidence 65%, updated 2026-04-13
- [Gap between top US labs narrows to 0-2 months](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/us-lab-gap-narrowing/) — confirmed, confidence 90%, updated 2026-06-22
- [Military tension around Taiwan escalates over AI race](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/taiwan-tensions/) — emerging, confidence 50%, updated 2026-03-13
- [Export controls impact Chinese AI compute](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/export-controls/) — confirmed, confidence 90%, updated 2026-06-08

### Economic Impact
- [Stock market rises 30% in 2026](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/stock-market-2026/) — behind, confidence 75%, updated 2026-04-13
- [Frontier model variant 10x cheaper released](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/agent-mini-cost-reduction/) — on-track, confidence 70%, updated 2026-03-31
- [Leading AI company reaches $45B annual revenue](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/frontier-lab-revenue/) — confirmed, confidence 75%, updated 2026-06-09
- [Global AI power consumption reaches 38GW](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/ai-power-consumption/) — emerging, confidence 55%, updated 2026-06-22
- [AI consumes 2.5% of US electricity](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/ai-us-power-share/) — emerging, confidence 50%, updated 2026-05-11
- [Leading AI company reaches $3T valuation](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/frontier-lab-valuation/) — behind, confidence 80%, updated 2026-06-15
- [Leading AI company reaches $40B compute costs, 6GW power, $200B capex](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/openbrain-financials/) — on-track, confidence 55%, updated 2026-06-15
- [Global AI capex reaches $1 trillion cumulative](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/capex-trillion/) — on-track, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-01
- [Stock market impact and public backlash from AI job displacement](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/labor-market/) — ahead, confidence 75%, updated 2026-06-29
- [Massive AI infrastructure investment continues](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/infra-investment/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-01
- [Massive datacenter buildouts continue](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/datacenter-buildout/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-06-15

### Takeoff
- [AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 1.5×](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/rd-multiplier/) — on-track, confidence 80%, updated 2026-06-22
- [AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 3×](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/rd-multiplier-3x/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 40%, updated 2026-03-13
- [AI algorithmic progress multiplier reaches 4× (~2× overall R&D)](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/rd-multiplier-4x/) — not-yet-testable, confidence 35%, updated 2026-03-13
- [AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 2x](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/rd-multiplier-2x/) — emerging, confidence 50%, updated 2026-06-22
- [AI companies focus on AI-for-AI-research](https://ai2027-tracker.com/predictions/ai-for-ai-research/) — confirmed, confidence 95%, updated 2026-05-25