This category contains 11 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.

AI consumes 2.5% of US electricity Emerging
End of 2026 Updated 2026-05-11 50% confidence

SHARE OF US POWER ON AI 2.5% — 33 GW OF 1.34TW CAPACITY

Frontier model variant 10x cheaper released On Track
Late 2026 Updated 2026-03-31 70% confidence

OpenBrain blows the competition out of the water again by releasing Agent-1-mini—a model 10x cheaper than Agent-1 and more easily fine-tuned for different applications.

Global AI capex reaches $1 trillion cumulative On Track
Late 2026 Updated 2026-05-18 95% confidence

GLOBAL AI CAPEX $1T (KEY METRICS 2026 sidebar). Note: Compute Forecast supplement shows annual spending: $270B (2024), $400B (2025), $600B (2026), $1T (2027) — suggesting $1T may be the 2027 annual figure, not cumulative by 2026. The KEY METRICS placement is ambiguous; tracker operationalizes as cumulative.

Global AI power consumption reaches 38GW Emerging
End of 2026 Updated 2026-05-11 50% confidence

GLOBAL AI POWER 38GW PEAK POWER

Leading AI company reaches $3T valuation Behind
End of 2026 Updated 2026-04-20 75% confidence

Sidebar graphics show OpenBrain valuation trajectory: $1T (Apr 2026), $2T (Aug 2026), $3T (Dec 2026)

Leading AI company reaches $40B compute costs, 6GW power, $200B capex On Track
End of 2026 Updated 2026-03-13 50% confidence

OPENBRAIN'S COMPUTE COSTS $40B 2026 ANNUAL · OPENBRAIN POWER REQUIREMENT 6GW PEAK POWER · CAPITAL EXPENDITURE $200B COST OF OWNERSHIP OF OPENBRAIN'S ACTIVE COMPUTE

Leading AI company reaches $45B annual revenue On Track
End of 2026 Updated 2026-05-18 65% confidence

OPENBRAIN REVENUE $45B 2026 ANNUAL

Massive AI infrastructure investment continues Confirmed
Ongoing through 2025–2026 Updated 2026-05-18 95% confidence

Hundreds of billions pour into AI infrastructure, with hyperscalers racing to build compute capacity at unprecedented scale.

Massive datacenter buildouts continue Confirmed
Through 2026 Updated 2026-05-11 95% confidence

Data center construction accelerates dramatically, with power grid constraints becoming a real bottleneck.

Stock market impact and public backlash from AI job displacement Ahead
Late 2026 Updated 2026-05-18 70% confidence

AI-driven job displacement becomes visible enough to trigger stock market volatility and significant public backlash.

Stock market rises 30% in 2026 Behind
End of 2026 Updated 2026-04-13 75% confidence

The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026, led by OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants.