AI 2027 Tracker
Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Status Breakdown
Visual Overview
Status Distribution
Category Coverage
By Category
Recently Updated
GLOBAL AI POWER 38GW PEAK POWER
SHARE OF US POWER ON AI 2.5% — 33 GW OF 1.34TW CAPACITY
OpenBrain 'responsibly' elects not to release it publicly yet (page 10); very few have access to the newest capabilities (page 16).
Agent-2 is 'only' a little worse than the best human hackers, but thousands of copies can be run in parallel, searching for and exploiting weaknesses faster than defenders can respond. (page 10)
Data center construction accelerates dramatically, with power grid constraints becoming a real bottleneck.
Current Assessment
May 2026 Summary
The tracker shows a mixed but still directionally relevant picture. Several qualitative predictions around agents, coding tools, infrastructure investment, lab competition, and institutional response have materialized, while important quantitative milestones remain uneven.
The most interesting divergence is still between capability and scale: METR-style agent horizons and some deployment signals have moved quickly, while frontier training-compute milestones, valuation targets, and parts of the R&D feedback-loop thesis remain harder to verify or behind the original pace.
Bottom line: AI 2027 remains worth tracking closely, but the public evidence supports a sober read: real directional signal, uneven timing, and substantial uncertainty around the most consequential 2026–2027 claims.