AI 2027 Tracker
Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Status Breakdown
Visual Overview
Status Distribution
Category Coverage
By Category
Recently Updated
OpenBrain 'responsibly' elects not to release it publicly yet (page 10); very few have access to the newest capabilities (page 16).
Data center construction accelerates dramatically, with power grid constraints becoming a real bottleneck.
Sidebar graphics show OpenBrain valuation trajectory: $1T (Apr 2026), $2T (Aug 2026), $3T (Dec 2026)
AI-driven job displacement becomes visible enough to trigger stock market volatility and significant public backlash.
While the latest Agent-1 could double the pace of OpenBrain's algorithmic progress, Agent-2 can now triple it, and will improve further with time.
Current Assessment
August 2026 Summary
The tracker remains mixed, with the status distribution unchanged. Infrastructure spending, data-center construction, coding tools, computer use, cyber evaluations, and restricted frontier access continue to move quickly. These areas support the scenario's broad direction, while leaving several numeric thresholds and causal claims unresolved.
The central test is still the AI R&D feedback loop. Independent shadow evaluations found that agents completed engineering work in two six-day AI research projects but did not make substantial progress on the central research questions. This cautions against treating coding throughput as evidence of a lab-wide research multiplier, although two cases cannot establish the population rate.
Bottom line: keep the overall assessment and approximate 0.70× speed ratio unchanged. The portfolio is strongest on capability deployment and physical investment. The transition from engineering automation to measured, compounding research acceleration remains unverified.