AI 2027 Tracker
Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Status Breakdown
Visual Overview
Status Distribution
Category Coverage
By Category
Recently Updated
OpenBrain blows the competition out of the water again by releasing Agent-1-mini—a model 10x cheaper than Agent-1 and more easily fine-tuned for different applications.
OpenBrain 'responsibly' elects not to release it publicly yet (page 10); very few have access to the newest capabilities (page 16).
Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that's premature... He elects to hold off on major action.
It could offer substantial help to terrorists designing bioweapons, thanks to its PhD-level knowledge of every field and ability to browse the web.
Agent-2 is 'only' a little worse than the best human hackers, but thousands of copies can be run in parallel, searching for and exploiting weaknesses faster than defenders can respond. (page 10)
Current Assessment
July 2026 Summary
The tracker remains mixed, with no new status changes from the June evidence runs. The strongest movement this month was in restricted frontier access, cyber and bio risk classifications, lab revenue, defense integration, and infrastructure constraints. Those areas continue to look directionally consistent with the scenario.
The central unresolved test is still the AI R&D feedback loop. Internal lab reports and benchmark movement support some acceleration, but the tracker has not yet seen external, controlled evidence that AI is broadly speeding frontier AI research by the multipliers the scenario requires.
Bottom line: keep the overall assessment unchanged. AI 2027 continues to look strongest on infrastructure, revenue, defense integration, cyber capability, and gated frontier access. The recursive R&D mechanism remains the key uncertainty for the next monthly review.