10²⁸ FLOP training run completed
Agent-2 trained at 2×10²⁸ FLOP (Apr 2026 – Mar 2027), representing a 1000× increase over GPT-4 scale.
At a glance
- Assessment: Not Yet Testable
- Confidence in assessment: 50%
- Predicted timing: March 2027
- Primary source: ai-2027.com, Compute Forecast supplement (Agent-2 row)
What AI 2027 Predicted
The scenario’s Compute Forecast table shows Agent-2 trained at 2×10²⁸ FLOP, with training running from April 2026 through March 2027. GPT-4 was trained at 2×10²⁵ FLOP, making Agent-2 a 1000× increase over GPT-4 scale (not 100× as previously stated). Note: the “Late 2025” section describes datacenter capacity being built, not a completed 10²⁸ training run. The actual 10²⁸ run completes in 2027.
How We Track This
We monitor:
- Epoch AI’s tracking of largest training runs
- Lab announcements of model training details
- Hardware deployment timelines (e.g., Blackwell clusters becoming operational)
- Analyst estimates of training compute for frontier models
Current Evidence
The reviewed evidence does not establish the original 2×10²⁸ FLOP training run. Training-compute estimates are uncertain; capacity announcements and hardware shipments do not establish compute used in a completed run. The comparison window is April 2026-March 2027. A generic 70%-speed estimate cannot infer a different completion date.
Sources:
- Frontier open models may surpass 1e26 FLOP — Epoch AI
- Tracking Large-Scale AI Models — Epoch AI
- Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions — AI Futures Project
- Top 12 NVIDIA GPUs for AI Training in 2026 — Atlantic.net
Counterevidence & Limitations
- Labs are increasingly opaque about training compute, making verification difficult
- Algorithmic improvements may reduce the need for raw compute scaling
- Some labs may have completed large runs without publicly disclosing details
- Algorithmic improvements may change what a training budget achieves, but this dossier still tracks the original FLOP quantity.
What Would Change Our Assessment
- Strengthen the assessment: Credible technical evidence describes a run approaching 2×10²⁸ FLOP.
- Confirm: Evidence establishes completed training compute and date under a consistent definition.
- Reassess timing after March 2027: Infrastructure delays matter insofar as they affect the original window.
Update History
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Current evidence and assessment explanation reviewed. Clarified measurement scope, source interpretation and limitations. |
| 2026-03-13 | 10²⁸ FLOP run now expected mid-to-late 2026 based on infrastructure buildout timelines. Prediction was ~6-12 months too aggressive. |
| 2025-12 | No confirmed 10²⁸ FLOP training run. Frontier estimated at ~10²⁶·⁵–10²⁷, well below the target. |