Geopolitics
US-China competition, export controls, and strategic AI power shifts.
This category contains 7 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.
China has managed to maintain about 12% of the world's AI-relevant compute.
He sets in motion the nationalization of Chinese AI research... all the best researchers merge into a DeepCent-led collective... A Centralized Development Zone (CDZ) is created at the Tianwan Power Plant.
Producing domestic chips about three years behind the U.S.-Taiwanese frontier.
US export controls constrain Chinese access to frontier AI chips, but China adapts through domestic alternatives and workarounds.
They are about six months behind the best OpenBrain models.
We imagine the others to be 3-9 months behind OpenBrain (page 4, Late 2025). By Early 2026, several competing AIs match or exceed Agent-0 (page 7). The 3-9 month gap is the Late 2025 state; near-parity emerges by Early 2026.
Other Party members discuss extreme measures to neutralize the West's chip advantage. A blockade of Taiwan? A full invasion? Both sides signal seriousness by repositioning military assets around Taiwan.