Geopolitics
US-China competition, export controls, and strategic AI power shifts.
This category contains 7 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.
China has managed to maintain about 12% of the world's AI-relevant compute.
He sets in motion the nationalization of Chinese AI research... all the best researchers merge into a DeepCent-led collective... A Centralized Development Zone (CDZ) is created at the Tianwan Power Plant.
Producing domestic chips about three years behind the U.S.-Taiwanese frontier.
US export controls constrain Chinese access to frontier AI chips, but China adapts through domestic alternatives and workarounds.
We imagine the others to be 3-9 months behind OpenBrain (page 4, Late 2025). By Early 2026, several competing AIs match or exceed Agent-0 (page 7). The 3-9 month gap is the Late 2025 state; near-parity emerges by Early 2026.
They are about six months behind the best OpenBrain models.
Other Party members discuss extreme measures to neutralize the West's chip advantage. A blockade of Taiwan? A full invasion? Both sides signal seriousness by repositioning military assets around Taiwan.