Governance
Policy, regulation, institutions, and how governments respond to frontier AI.
This category contains 8 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.
OpenBrain has net approval of −35%, with 25% approving, 60% disapproving and 15% unsure.
Despite rapid capability gains, mainstream skepticism about AI's transformative potential persists among academics, journalists, and policymakers.
Department of Defense quietly but significantly begins scaling up contracting OpenBrain directly for cyber, data analysis, and R&D, but integration is slow due to bureaucracy.
A lab limits a prior model-sharing commitment to external deployment, leaving foreign safety evaluators without access to the strongest internal systems.
The government contract requires security clearances for everyone working on the frontier models within two months.
There is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.
Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that's premature... He elects to hold off on major action.
OpenBrain 'responsibly' elects not to release it publicly yet (page 10); very few have access to the newest capabilities (page 16).