Takeoff Dynamics
R&D acceleration, infrastructure, and the broader dynamics of takeoff.
This category contains 9 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.
This massive superhuman labor force speeds up OpenBrain's overall rate of algorithmic progress by 'only' 4x due to bottlenecks and diminishing returns to coding labor. (Note: Footnote 31 clarifies 4x algorithmic progress corresponds to roughly 2x overall progress rate.)
Frontier AI labs increasingly use AI systems to accelerate their own AI research and development.
AI systems contribute enough to AI research that the effective R&D multiplier reaches 1.5× — AI makes AI research 50% faster.
While the latest Agent-1 could double the pace of OpenBrain's algorithmic progress, Agent-2 can now triple it, and will improve further with time.
While the latest Agent-1 could double the pace of OpenBrain's algorithmic progress, Agent-2 can now triple it.
A superintelligent AI researcher is vastly better than the best human researcher at AI research.
An individual Agent-4 copy operating at human speed is qualitatively better at AI research than any human.
AI collectives produce most research progress while most humans cease to contribute usefully; leading humans retain some research judgment.
Most humans contribute little, but the strongest retain research taste and planning value; the appendix estimates removing humans would slow research by roughly half.