Takeoff Dynamics

R&D acceleration, infrastructure, and the broader dynamics of takeoff.

Author Johannes Haus
Last updated

This category contains 5 tracked predictions. Each page includes the original claim, current evidence, counterevidence, and what would change our assessment.

AI algorithmic progress multiplier reaches 4× (~2× overall R&D) Not Yet Testable
March 2027 Updated 2026-03-13 35% confidence

This massive superhuman labor force speeds up OpenBrain's overall rate of algorithmic progress by 'only' 4x due to bottlenecks and diminishing returns to coding labor. (Note: Footnote 31 clarifies 4x algorithmic progress corresponds to roughly 2x overall progress rate.)
AI companies focus on AI-for-AI-research Confirmed
2025–2026 Updated 2026-04-20 90% confidence

Frontier AI labs increasingly use AI systems to accelerate their own AI research and development.
AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 1.5× On Track
Early 2026 Updated 2026-04-13 70% confidence

AI systems contribute enough to AI research that the effective R&D multiplier reaches 1.5× — AI makes AI research 50% faster.
AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 2x Emerging
Late 2026 Updated 2026-03-13 45% confidence

While the latest Agent-1 could double the pace of OpenBrain's algorithmic progress, Agent-2 can now triple it, and will improve further with time.
AI R&D progress multiplier reaches 3× Not Yet Testable
January 2027 Updated 2026-03-13 40% confidence

While the latest Agent-1 could double the pace of OpenBrain's algorithmic progress, Agent-2 can now triple it.